Uncommon November Winter Storm Arriving Tomorrow

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Here we go!  Currently an upper level low is moving northeast towards the East Coast with a high pressure system sliding overhead our region to the east.  These 2 features will work together to bring us a rare winter storm tomorrow afternoon into Friday morning.  Some substantial changes have occurred since I last wrote Monday.  Modeling has trended colder over the past 24 – 48 hours showing much more wintry precipitation for NW, NJ.  One of the reasons for this is because models tend to overlook the cold air damming in these type of dynamic events.  Another reason models have trended colder is due to the upper low being farther south than previously modeled and opening up right as it reaches our region allowing for more cold air to be in place.  That being said these type of events usually come with surprises, as models still tend to underestimate the CAD right up to the event.  Dynamic cooling will be a big player too tomorrow in determining who stays snow and who stays snow as heavier precipitation rates draw cooler air down to the surface from the atmosphere.  With taking this all into account here is where I stand…  Snow begins to breakout between 12 and 2 pm tomorrow afternoon becoming heavier as the day progresses.  By late tomorrow night snow begins to transition to sleet/freezing rain as the upper level low approaches, flooding the upper/mid levels of the atmosphere with warm air (above 32 degrees).  Then Friday morning comes, and I think there is a shot we stay freezing rain due to surface temperatures being right around 32 degrees.  After that we could potentially switch back to snow as cold air rushes in from the west as the low pressure system moves east of our area.  Due to the system being so dynamic, it is extremely difficult to forecast when and if these changeovers occur for locations west of I-287 in NW, NJ which is why I said we could have a surprise for the worse or for the better.  Now lets talk about where I stand with snowfall accumulations…  For Northeastern, NJ I am expecting anywhere from 2 – 4 inches of accumulation.  Then we move on to Northwestern, NJ where I think anywhere from 5 – 8 inches of snow could fall with higher amounts the farther northwest you go.  Regardless, this is going to be a fascinating event for this time of year as we haven’t had an appreciable winter storm in November since 2012.  Graphics Below…

Snowfall Accumulation Map:

Upper Water Vapor + Surface Map:

 

 

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