Significant Nor’ Easter To End Out The Week

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Good evening, a significant Nor’ Easter is on the way for our area that will produce heavy rain, snow, and high winds.  A system of low pressure will develop over the Midwestern States tracking northeast up into the Ohio Valley where the low will then transfer to the coast intensifying rapidly.  The low off the coast will move very slowly and potentially stall or loop before moving out to sea due to a strong blocking high pressure system over Greenland.  Guidance is still in disagreement with the evolution of the low with the GFS being the most northern solution driving the primary low over the Great Lakes before transferring off the NJ coast while the European, NAM, and SREFS have the primary low further to the south transferring off the coast like the GFS.  Since most of the guidance is farther south than the GFS it appears to be an outlier currently, putting more weight into the European, NAM, and SREFS.  Since this system is very complex modeling will continue to struggle with details like precipitation type, snowfall amounts, and how slowly the system moves out to sea due to the high pressure system over Greenland.  I currently favor a blend of the European/NAM model showing a heavy rain to heavy snow solution with the low slowly moving increasing the chances for significant snow accumulations.  European/NAM have snow accumulations ranging from 4 – 12 inches due to the low stalling off the coast and pulling colder air in from the north and dynamic cooling which is basically the atmosphere transferring it’s heat energy to heavy precipitation pulling the cold the air down to the surface causing a change to snow.  In conclusion, with all the data I have analyzed I favor a solution where heavy rain moves in Thursday night changing to heavy snow by early Friday morning.  I will continue to monitor and analyze the new model data and will have my ideas on snowfall accumulations by tomorrow afternoon.  Next update at 6pm tomorrow night.

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