Tonight into Tomorrow:
Still on track for a quick 1 – 3″ late tonight into tomorrow morning. Intensity should be light to moderate at times overnight causing some slippery roads conditions tomorrow morning. Snow should tapper off between 4 – 6am tomorrow morning.
Saturday PM into Sunday:
Currently our storm is starting to develop out in the Midwest that will track into our region Saturday evening. There continues to be a lot of uncertainty/model volatility into where the low pressure systems tracks making it harder to forecast precipitation types once it enters our region. This is due to there being subtle changes in the northern stream and southern stream energy in the upper levels of the atmosphere every model run due to the energy starting to be sampled over the US. Details like snow accumulation amounts, ice amounts, and precipitation types should be resolved tomorrow as modeling should start to come to a consensus on the track of the low pressure. I continue to favor a colder solution due to the cold air damming (CAD) signature by an area of high pressure over Canada that the models usually never pick up on till the start of the event. The National Weather Service has issued a Winter Storm Watch for much of our region that will either turn into Winter Storm Warnings or Winter Storm Advisories by tomorrow afternoon/evening as models hone in on the low pressure track. Here are my early thoughts on how I think the precipitation types will work out during the storm.
Tomorrow things should hopefully become much clearer and then we can talk about specifics like snowfall amounts, ice accumulations, etc…