Hurricane and Fall Discussion

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Hi all, it’s been a long time since I have written a post due to updates being made to the website and hurricane season being very inactive so far this season.  I’m planning to start making daily forecast updates by early October with a whole new set of revamped graphics for this upcoming winter.  Weather wise, hurricane season continues to be very quite due to the Main Development Region (MDR) and sea surface temperature’s (SST’s) off the African Coast being below normal unlike last year, when they were extremely above normal.  Another factor that has caused the season to be so quite so far this season, is are developing El Niño in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean that will play a key role on the upcoming fall/winter season.  The National Oceanic Administration (NOAA) have recently issued a El Niño Watch with a chance 60% chance for an El Niño developing by fall and a 70% chance by winter 2018 – 2019.  Climatogical modeling/data continues to hint at a Modoki (central-based) El Niño developing which is often associated with a cold and snowy winter for the Northeast/Mid Atlantic region.  Current observations would support this type of El Niño developing which should start to show us some early signs of what we could expect this winter.  In relation to hurricane season, the slowly developing El Niño and cold SST’s in the Atlantic Ocean should continue to keep the tropics relatively inactive compared to last season with The National Hurricane Center calling for a near to below average rest of the season.  Remember though, it only takes one tropical system to hit the United States to make a memorable/devastating season.  I will continue to monitor the slowly developing El Niño as it will be very interesting to see how it develops over the months ahead.  I will be writing another blog talking about the upcoming fall pattern soon.

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